Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines for Contraceptive Use
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31958/js.v17i1.15759Keywords:
Contraceptive use, Socio-economics factors, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS), Non-linear modelingAbstract
Contraception is a critical public health issue, particularly in countries with high birth rates. In Indonesia, family planning has long been a priority, but challenges remain, especially in regions like West Sumatra, where socio-cultural factors influence contraceptive use. This study investigates the factors affecting contraceptive use in West Sumatra, focusing on socio-economic, cultural, and demographic variables. Traditional linear models often fail to capture the non-linear relationships and interactions between variables. To address this, the study employs the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method, a non-parametric regression technique that adapts to non-linearities and interactions. The model incorporates variables such as age, education, income, and access to family planning services, and identifies critical points (knots) where significant changes in contraceptive use occur. Results show that socio-economic factors, particularly education, income, and access to healthcare, significantly influence contraceptive use. The model demonstrates strong predictive performance, with an R┬▓ value of 0.98, indicating it explains 98% of the variability in contraceptive use patterns. By identifying key factors and their interactions, this study offers valuable insights for policymakers and public health officials, suggesting that improving access to services and addressing socio-cultural barriers can enhance family planning participation. The flexibility and predictive accuracy of the MARS model make it a valuable tool for evidence-based family planning interventions in West Sumatra and similar regions.
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Friedman, J. H. (1991). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines. The Annals of Statistics, 19(1), 1–141.
Guilkey, D. K., & Speizer, I. S. (2022). The direct and indirect effects of community beliefs and attitudes on postpartum contraceptive method choice among young women ages 15-24 in Nigeria. PLoS ONE, 17(1 January), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261701
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Otok, B. W., Putra, R. Y., Sutikno, & Yasmirullah, S. D. P. (2020). Bootstrap aggregating multivariate adaptive regression spline for observational studies in diabetes cases. Systematic Reviews in Pharmacy, 11(8), 406–413. https://doi.org/10.31838/srp.2020.8.59
Otok, B. W., Rumiati, A. T., Ampulembang, A. P., & Al Azies, H. (2023). Anova Decomposition and Importance Variable Process in Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Model. International Journal on Advanced Science Engineering Information Technology, 13, 928–934. https://doi.org/10.18517/ijaseit
Palamuleni, M. E. (2013). Socio-economic and demographic factors affecting contraceptive use in Malawi. African Journal of Reproductive Health, 17(3), 91–104.
Prihastuti Yasmirullah, S. D., Otok, B. W., Trijoyo Purnomo, J. D., & Prastyo, D. D. (2021). Modification of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS). Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1863(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1863/1/012078
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Samari, G. (2018). Women’s empowerment and short- and long-acting contraceptive method use in Egypt. Culture, Health and Sexuality, 20(4), 458–473. https://doi.org/10.1080/13691058.2017.1356938
Sedgh, G., Ashford, L. S., & Hussain, R. (2016). Unmet need for contraception in developing countries: Examining women’s reasons for not using a method. Guttmacher Institute, June, 1–93. https://www.guttmacher.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/unmet-need-for-contraception-in-developing-countries-report.pdf
Sriningsih, R., Otok, B. W., & Sutikno. (2021). Factors affecting the number of dengue fever cases in West Sumatra province using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1722(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1722/1/012094
Sriningsih, R., Otok, B. W., & Sutikno. (2023). Determination of the best Multivariate Adaptive Geographically Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression Splines Model Employing Generalized Cross-Validation in Dengue Fever Cases. MethodsX, 10.
Tumlinson, K., Pence, B. W., Curtis, S. L., Marshall, S. W., & Speizer, I. S. (2015). Quality of care and contraceptive use in urban Kenya. International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 41(2), 69–79. https://doi.org/10.1363/4106915
Wilisandi, W., & Feriani, P. (2020). Hubungan Faktor Budaya dengan Perilaku Penggunaan Alat Kontrasepsi (KB) di Puskesmas Samarinda Kota. Borneo Student Research, 2(1), 195–202.
Yasmirullah, S. D. P., Otok, B. W., Purnomo, J. D. T., & Prastyo, D. D. (2021). Parameter Estimation of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) with Stepwise Approach to Multi Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) Modeling in Lamongan Regency. Journal of Physics: Conference Series ICSMTR 2019, 1752(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1752/1/012017
Yasmirullah, S. D. P., Otok, B. W., Purnomo, J. D. T., & Prastyo, D. D. (2023). Parameter Estimation of Spatial Error Model – Multivariate Adaptive Generalized Poisson Regression Spline. Engineering Letters, 31(3), 1265–1272. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.dsl.2023.7.004
Yasmirullah, S. D. P., Otok, B. W., Trijoyo Purnomo, J. D., & Prastyo, D. D. (2023). A hybrid model of spatial autoregressive-multivariate adaptive generalized Poisson regression spline. Decision Science Letters, 12, 721–728. https://doi.org/10.5267/dsl.2023.7.004
Azanaw, M. M., Fentie, D. T., Bukayaw, Y. A., Lakew, A. M., & Sisay, M. M. (2022). Spatial distribution and determinant factors of unmet need for family planning among all reproductive-age women in Ethiopia: a multi-level logistic regression modelling approach. Contraception and Reproductive Medicine, 7(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40834-022-00178-9
Chandra-Mouli, V., & Akwara, E. (2020). Improving access to and use of contraception by adolescents: What progress has been made, what lessons have been learnt, and what are the implications for action? Best Practice and Research: Clinical Obstetrics and Gynaecology, 66, 107–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpobgyn.2020.04.003
Cleland, J., Conde-Agudelo, A., Peterson, H., Ross, J., & Tsui, A. (2012). Contraception and health. The Lancet, 380(9837), 149–156. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60609-6
Cleland, J., Harbison, S., & Shah, I. H. (2014). Unmet Need for Contraception: Issues and Challenges. Studies in Family Planning, 45(2), 105–122. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4465.2014.00380.x
Friedman, J. H. (1991). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines. The Annals of Statistics, 19(1), 1–141.
Guilkey, D. K., & Speizer, I. S. (2022). The direct and indirect effects of community beliefs and attitudes on postpartum contraceptive method choice among young women ages 15-24 in Nigeria. PLoS ONE, 17(1 January), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261701
Handayani, D. (2010). Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ibu dalam Pengambilan Keputusan Memilih Alat Kontrasepsi Dalam Rahim (AKDR) di Wilayah Bidan Praktik Swasta Titik Sri Suparti Boyolali. Jurnal KESMADASKA, 1(1), 56–65.
Karim, R., Bkar Pk, M. A., Asaduzzaman, M., Dey, P., & Akbar, M. A. (2024). Investigation on Predicting Family Planning and Women’S and Children’S Health Effects on Bangladesh By Conducting Age Structure Population Model. Journal of Mechanics of Continua and Mathematical Sciences, 19(3), 65–86. https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2024.03.00005
Kismiasih Adethia, Annisa Silvia, Retno Wahyuni, Diah Pitaloka, Sonia Novita Sari, & Yasrida Nadeak. (2024). Hubungan Sosial Budaya dan Pengetahuan Terhadap Minat Ibu dalam Penggunaan Alat Kontrasepsi Jangka Panjang (MKJP) di Wilayah Kerja UPTD Puskesmas Singkil Tahun 2024. Antigen : Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat Dan Ilmu Gizi, 2(3), 200–206. https://doi.org/10.57213/antigen.v2i3.337
Li, D. H. W., Chen, W., Li, S., & Lou, S. (2019). Estimation of hourly global solar radiation using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) – A case study of Hong Kong. Energy, 186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.115857
Meilisa, M., Otok, B. W., & Purnomo, J. D. T. (2023a). Factor affecting the severity of the dengue fever using multivariate adaptive regression spline (Mars) method. AIP Conference Proceedings, 2556(March). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0131508
Meilisa, M., Otok, B. W., & Purnomo, J. D. T. (2023b). Factor affecting the severity of the dengue fever using multivariate adaptive regression spline (Mars) method. AIP Conference Proceedings, 2556. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0131508
Meilisa, M., Otok, B. W., & Purnomo, J. D. T. (2024). Multivariate Adaptive Fuzzy Clustering Means Regression Splines Model Using Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) on Stunting Cases in Southeast Sulawesi. Lecture Notes on Data Engineering and Communications Technologies, 191, 447–462. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-0293-0_32
Michael, T. O., Ojo, T. F., Ijabadeniyi, O. A., Ibikunle, M. A., Oni, J. O., & Agboola, A. A. (2024). Prevalence and factors associated with contraceptive use among sexually active adolescent girls in 25 sub-Saharan African countries. PLoS ONE, 19(2 February), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0297411
Nasir, N. M. (2020). Gambaran Faktor Agama dalam Penggunaan Kontrasepsi pada Wanita Usia Subur di Ciputat Tangerang Selatan. Journal of Religion and Public Health, 1(1), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.15408/jrph.v1i1.12553
Nations, U. (2022). World Family Planning 2022. In United Nations.
Organization, W. H. (n.d.). Social determinants of sexual and reproductive health.
Otok, B. W., Putra, R. Y., Sutikno, & Yasmirullah, S. D. P. (2020). Bootstrap aggregating multivariate adaptive regression spline for observational studies in diabetes cases. Systematic Reviews in Pharmacy, 11(8), 406–413. https://doi.org/10.31838/srp.2020.8.59
Otok, B. W., Rumiati, A. T., Ampulembang, A. P., & Al Azies, H. (2023). Anova Decomposition and Importance Variable Process in Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Model. International Journal on Advanced Science Engineering Information Technology, 13, 928–934. https://doi.org/10.18517/ijaseit
Palamuleni, M. E. (2013). Socio-economic and demographic factors affecting contraceptive use in Malawi. African Journal of Reproductive Health, 17(3), 91–104.
Prihastuti Yasmirullah, S. D., Otok, B. W., Trijoyo Purnomo, J. D., & Prastyo, D. D. (2021). Modification of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS). Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1863(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1863/1/012078
Rati Sumanti, Henri Prianto Sinurat, & Ervina Yunita. (2022). Strategi Peningkatan Partisipasi Keluarga Berencana di Kabupaten Kepulauan Mentawai. Jurnal Administrasi Publik, 18(2), 283–300. https://doi.org/10.52316/jap.v18i2.122
Samari, G. (2018). Women’s empowerment and short- and long-acting contraceptive method use in Egypt. Culture, Health and Sexuality, 20(4), 458–473. https://doi.org/10.1080/13691058.2017.1356938
Sedgh, G., Ashford, L. S., & Hussain, R. (2016). Unmet need for contraception in developing countries: Examining women’s reasons for not using a method. Guttmacher Institute, June, 1–93. https://www.guttmacher.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/unmet-need-for-contraception-in-developing-countries-report.pdf
Sriningsih, R., Otok, B. W., & Sutikno. (2021). Factors affecting the number of dengue fever cases in West Sumatra province using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1722(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1722/1/012094
Sriningsih, R., Otok, B. W., & Sutikno. (2023). Determination of the best Multivariate Adaptive Geographically Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression Splines Model Employing Generalized Cross-Validation in Dengue Fever Cases. MethodsX, 10.
Tumlinson, K., Pence, B. W., Curtis, S. L., Marshall, S. W., & Speizer, I. S. (2015). Quality of care and contraceptive use in urban Kenya. International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 41(2), 69–79. https://doi.org/10.1363/4106915
Wilisandi, W., & Feriani, P. (2020). Hubungan Faktor Budaya dengan Perilaku Penggunaan Alat Kontrasepsi (KB) di Puskesmas Samarinda Kota. Borneo Student Research, 2(1), 195–202.
Yasmirullah, S. D. P., Otok, B. W., Purnomo, J. D. T., & Prastyo, D. D. (2021). Parameter Estimation of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) with Stepwise Approach to Multi Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) Modeling in Lamongan Regency. Journal of Physics: Conference Series ICSMTR 2019, 1752(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1752/1/012017
Yasmirullah, S. D. P., Otok, B. W., Purnomo, J. D. T., & Prastyo, D. D. (2023). Parameter Estimation of Spatial Error Model – Multivariate Adaptive Generalized Poisson Regression Spline. Engineering Letters, 31(3), 1265–1272. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.dsl.2023.7.004
Yasmirullah, S. D. P., Otok, B. W., Trijoyo Purnomo, J. D., & Prastyo, D. D. (2023). A hybrid model of spatial autoregressive-multivariate adaptive generalized Poisson regression spline. Decision Science Letters, 12, 721–728. https://doi.org/10.5267/dsl.2023.7.004
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